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NFL odds, picks for Week 7: Advanced computer model loving Jaguars and Eagles

There’s a lot to digest on the NFL odds board for Week 7. Nursing back and ankle injuries, Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski didn’t make the trip to Chicago for New England’s game against the Bears. After the news broke, the line dipped from Patriots -2.5 to -1.5 before rebounding slightly to -2. In Cleveland, the Browns traded running back Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars, giving rookie Nick Chubb a significant role on offense. The Browns are 3.5-underdogs at Tampa Bay this week, while the over-under, which opened at 48.5, has shot up to 52. With NFL odds, lines, and spreads constantly shifting, be sure to check out the Week 7 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. 

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

It went a blistering 13-2 straight up in Week 6, including calling the Steelers‘ outright upset of the Bengals, and the Patriots knocking off the previously unbeaten Chiefs. The model is now on an impressive 61-41 run on all of its top-rated picks, and anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 7 NFL picks are in. 

One of the Week 7 NFL picks the model is all over: the Eagles (-4.5) cover with room to spare against the Panthers

It’s been an up-and-down campaign for the defending Super Bowl champions, who sit at 3-3 after a dominant 34-13 victory over the Giants in Week 6. The model says that Philadelphia stays hot against a Carolina team that was upset by the Redskins last week. 

Carson Wentz throws for nearly 300 yards, according to the model, while Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement combine for almost 100 yards on the ground in place of the injured Jay Ajayi (ACL, IR) as Philadelphia covers the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations. The Over (45.5) hits almost 60 percent of the time as well. 

Another one of the top Week 7 NFL picks from the model: the Jaguars (-4.5) cover at home against the AFC South rival Texans. 

In what the latest NFL odds say will be a low-scoring game, 4.5 points is a significant line. Jacksonville has suffered back-to-back defeats by at least 16 points, but the Jaguars absolutely dominated the Texans, 45-7, the last time these two teams met in Jacksonville. 

The model says that Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles will bounce back and account for almost 300 yards of total offense on Sunday, while receivers Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook will team up for over 120 yards through the air. The Texans are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games and the model says that trend continues as the Jaguars cover in almost 55 percent of simulations. Back the Over (41.5) as well because that hits 60 percent of the time.

The model also has a strong selection for the huge Cowboys vs. Redskins showdown, and is calling for a top Super Bowl contender to lose in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 7? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 45)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41)
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (+3. 46.5)  
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 44.5)
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 43)
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+2, 48.5)
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 52)
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (+3.5, 46)
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 49)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+1.5, 41.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+9, 52)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 58)
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 54)

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