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NFL odds, picks for Week 15: Advanced computer model loving Lions and Seahawks

The Week 15 NFL schedule will have major ramifications for the NFL playoff picture. A win for a division leader can mean a home game in the playoffs, while a loss can mean a road trip to a hostile environment. If you believe the latest NFL odds, several teams looking to move up in the AFC playoff picture and NFC playoff picture could have a tough time. One week after shutting down the Rams, the Bears are favored by five points against the arch-rival Packers at Soldier Field. If they can make good on that favorite status, they’ll be champions of the NFC North. Meanwhile, the Cowboys can win the NFC East with a win, but they’re three-point underdogs on the road against the Colts in one of the tightest NFL lines this week. With difficult calls to make and NFL odds and spreads constantly moving, you’ll want to check out the top Week 15 NFL picks and predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine before locking in your own selections.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 15 on a blistering 16-3 run. For the season, it is now 30-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 139-67 on the season, ranking in the top two on Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 15 NFL picks are in. One of the top Week 15 NFL picks the model recommends: the Lions cover as 2.5-point underdogs on the road against the Bills, nearly winning outright in a 21-20 defeat.

This game originally opened as a pick’em, but action on the Bills drove the line to its current state. According to SportsLine’s model, that has created plenty of value on the Lions. Even though the Bills have looked much better since quarterback Josh Allen’s return, they’ve now lost two games in a row and failed to cover on both occasions. 

Meanwhile, the Lions came away with a win and cover last week over the Cardinals thanks to their defense, which has been playing well for the last month. Against Buffalo, the model projects that the defense and a 220-yard day with a touchdown and an interception from Matthew Stafford keep the Lions close, even with wideout Bruce Ellington (hamstring) and running back Kerryon Johnson (knee) out. They cover in well over half of simulations, with the Over (39.5) cashing more than half the time as well.

Another one of the Week 15 NFL predictions from the model: the Seahawks (-3.5) cover on the road against the 49ers. The model is calling for a six-point Seattle win, clearing the spread with room to spare.

The Seahawks (8-5) earned a hard-fought victory over the Vikings on Monday night and have now won four straight games. That includes a dominant 43-16 home victory over San Francisco in Week 13. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw four touchdowns in his first meeting against the 49ers, while Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny combined for over 120 rushing yards. The Seahawks could also get wide receiver Doug Baldwin back from a hip injury. Baldwin has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games he’s played.

Despite San Francisco’s victory as an underdog last week, the model isn’t calling for a repeat performance. The Seahawks cover the 3.5-point spread in well over half of simulations, while there’s also value on the Over (44) because that hits 55 percent of the time. 

The model also has a strong pick for the huge AFC battle between the Steelers and Patriots, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this weekend in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 15? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Houston Texans at New York Jets (+7, 44.5)
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-2, 47)
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7.5, 44.5)
Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 46.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47.5)

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 39.5)

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5, 45.5)

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (+1, 43)
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 36)

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 44)

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 54)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 44)

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-13, 52)

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5, 50.5)

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